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35a32c5
(Get the code!)
Isn't Debian still planning on moving to upstart? If so that would be a major vote of confidence and would guarantee upstart sticks around for a while longer.
systemd looks very neat. That both RedHat and OpenSUSE are moving to adopt it is telling but I don't think it's very likely Ubuntu will give up upstart any time soon. More likely we'll see some borrowing of code and ideas. FWIW, SysVinit compatibility is the highest on my wishlist.
OTOH, if Debian decide to move to systemd all bets are off. In that case I hope Ubuntu does the right thing and chucks upstart out rather than increase Ubuntu's divergence from the rest of the Linux world.